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Currently, the Lakers have over $75 million tied up in guaranteed contracts, one of the highest payrolls in the league. Their offseason moves are handicapped in two ways, the salary cap and the luxury tax. The exact amounts are yet to be determined, but based on the same rate of growth as the past few years, probably by $2-3 million.

1. Salary Cap.
The Lakers are way over the salary cap – last year it was just under $56 million. This year, probably $58m. The salary cap is set by the league to prevent big market, high payroll teams from acquiring additional stars. For example, Gilbert Arenas opted out of his contract, and is an unrestricted free agent, meaning he could sign with any team. He’s looking for a max contract starting at $14 million a year. So can the Lakers sign the hometown star? No, since the Lakers are over the salary cap.

That doesn’t mean the Lakers can’t sign any other players at all. The league provides for a few exceptions:

• Mid-level Exception: $5.6m (can be exercised every year)
• Biannual Exception: $2.3m (once every two years)
• Minimum: 440K to  $1.3m, depending on years of experience (no limit)

2. Luxury Tax
The Luxury tax is a dollar for dollar tax imposed by the league, penalizing teams that cross the luxury threshold. Last year, it was set at just under $68m. Note that there is about $20m wiggle room for a team to exceed the salary cap (meant to prevent major acquisitions) before they hit the luxury tax (meant to penalize teams that are overspending).  Let’s say the Lakers end up spending $80m this coming season, and the luxury tax is set at $70m. The Lakers must pay $10m to the league as a penalty.

Let’s look at an example. James Posey, who played a big role in the Celtics championship, is an unrestricted free agent, meaning he can sign with any team. He is generally considered to be a Mid-level amount player, around $5-$6m. But let’s say Boston wants him back, L.A. wants to steal him, and a third team, say San Antonio wants him to replace aging Bruce Bowen. But Posey isn’t going to cost the same to the teams. Since Boston and L.A. are over the luxury tax, it’s going to cost them $10, $12m a year to sign Posey. That’s more than what Manu Ginobili, Chris Kaman, and other better players make.

On top of that, the luxury tax hurts the team even when it tries to sign its own players. For example, Sasha Vujacic and Ronny Turiaf are free agents. Whatever offer they get from other teams, the Lakers must pay double to keep them.  Thus, teams try their damnedest to get under the luxury tax.

While most teams are above the salary cap, the luxury cap is a chokehold, it severely cripples a team’s ability to improve itself.

The team must re-examine its roster. Odom for $15m? The team will probably let his contract expire next summer.  Radmanovic for $6m? Jerry Buss is probably kicking himself for not terminating Radmanovic’s contract a couple years ago, when the Space Cadet injured himself trying to snowboard in Park City.

The very next day, Shaq pulls a hit-and-run:

“I was freestyling. That’s all. It was all done in fun. Nothing serious whatsoever. That is what MC’s do. They freestyle when called upon. I’m totally cool with Kobe. No issue at all. And by the way, don’t forget, six albums, two platinum, two gold. Anybody who knows me knows I’m a funny freestyler. Check the NBA DVD when I was rapping about Vlade Divac during my first championship run. Please tell everybody don’t make something out of nothing.”

“Everyone that knows Shaq knows two things about me: One, that I’m a rapper, and two, that I’m a comedian. When I played with Kobe, me, him, Brian Shaw, J.R. Rider, we had freestyle sessions all the time. … all in fun and we said crazier stuff than that. If I hurt anyone’s feelings, I apologize.”

(espn.com)

The LA Times reported about Odom possibly shifting back to guard next season. Now, some people are thinking, wait a minute, if Bynum returns, doesn’t that push Odom to SF? Why would he play shooting guard – isn’t that Kobe’s position?

Positions in the triangle offense are different than those of conventional offenses.
—you may skip this paragraph is you know what I’m talking about—

The triangle offense really employs a 2-guard front (no true point guard in theory), consisting of a lead guard and a lag guard. The purpose of having a 2-guard front is to react better to what the defense is doing. The purpose of the guards is to set up a sideline triangle (thus it’s namesake), made up of a post player (forward), guard (on the perimeter), and the wing (on the perimeter but close to the corner baseline). The purpose of this is to create an overload offense, to create a high percentage shot based on what the defenses do. On the opposite side, unrelated to the triangle, is the offside guard and offside forward. These guys should be good shooters because it’ll prevent defenses from overplaying the sideline triangle (coming to help, double-team, etc.). But upon ball reversal, they can either go to a 2-man game, isolation for the offside post, or they can set up another triangle on the opposite side (using the wing cutting baseline).

—end triangle jargon—

Odom did play more guard than forward in his first year under Phil Jackson, the 05-06 season. That year, Kobe played more on the wing, when Kobe averaged 35 points a game. This was also the year when Kobe scored 62 points in 3 quarters against the Mavs, and 81 against the Raptors.

There’s no question Kobe is most productive and lethal when he plays more at the wing and high post.

But Odom had struggled to organize the offense effectively, he wasn’t as proficient in that facilitator role, and the Lakers’ offense became too dependent on Kobe to do everything (Odom would just pass him the ball at the top of the key almost every time). On top of that, Odom wasn’t proving himself to be a capable 2nd scorer, especially on the perimeter.

Thus, Phil Jackson couldn’t think of a better solution than put Kobe Bryant back at guard FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE TEAM, since Kobe knows the offense and has the ability to throw entry passes, read defenses, run the pick and roll, drive and kick, etc. The proof was in the pudding. In 05-06, Kobe dropped 50 points on the Suns twice in that season (once in the reg season, once in the playoffs), and the Lakers lost both games. The limitations of a one-man wrecking ball and the demands of a sputtering-team offense pushed Kobe out of the interior and onto the perimeter, to a more playmaking, facilitating role in the following seasons.

So Phil moved Kobe back to guard in 06-07. But that year was even worse, showing that his teammates simply weren’t good enough – regardless of whether Kobe played the scorer or playmaker. Lamar had struggled facilitating the offense in the previous year, but when he moved into the frontcourt, Odom also struggled to consistently score. The conclusion was that Odom simply wasn’t consistent enough to be a 2nd option in any context

Luckily, after Gasol’s arrival, Odom embraced his role as the offside forward – and as the 3rd option. But how would he fare back at guard and as the fourth option when Bynum returns?

Odom’s move back to guard will be a bit different than in 05-06. It won’t be as demanding, since Fish can handle some duties (rather than the bit player Smush was), as well as Gasol in the high post, as well as Bynum in the low post, and of course, Kobe.

This time around, Odom won’t have to be the Scottie-Pippen type of facilitator to Kobe’s Jordan. Because we’re not the Bulls, we’re not the championship Lakers, we’re something entirely different. We have quality at almost every position, everybody is a willing passer and a scoring threat. No longer are the Lakers relying on Kwame, Smush, and Luke. Having the right kind of talent at every position is conducive to fully realizing the potential of the triangle offense.

Also, this time around, Odom also doesn’t have to be the 2nd option. So his role changes. Rather than a primary ballhandler at guard, Odom will be more of a trigger man and ball-mover. Rather than pulling up for the jump shot, he’ll have to catch-and-shoot.

As a whole, the guard role that Odom will have to play would be less demanding, but at the same time, these simpler demands aren’t his natural strengths, so he’ll have to adjust.

And anyways, the offense relies on a certain level of interchangeability, and of course, Kobe’s the ultimate bail-out card, so Odom will have ample time and wiggle room to acclimate himself with a modified role at guard.

Then again, why go through the trouble and risk of putting Odom through the adjustment, when they could probably acquire a more conventional catch-and-shoot small forward who could play perhaps even better defense? All at a cheaper cost? The Battiers, the Poseys, the Bowens, the Raja Bells, they don’t make max-money. They make MLE money.

A proper analogy would be Matt Damon in the Ocean’s movies. Matt Damon is an excellent actor, a leading actor, a serious actor. Wtf is he doing as a bit comedy actor in the Ocean’s movies? Clearly it’s really a Pitt-Clooney vehicle, everybody else is just along for the ride. Which is fine, because most of the supporting cast are role players. But Matt Damon? First of all, he’s not very funny but he’s trying really hard to be, and second of all, it’s kind of a waste of his talent.

Then again, he’s from Boston, so…figures.

The KG-Pierce high screen-and-roll has been devastating. It has become Boston’s go-to move that the Lakers haven’t defended properly. Here are some suggestions:

1. Kobe must guard Pierce, since Pierce has been waltzing his way to a billion points guarded by the likes of Radmanovic and Walton. Radmanovic especially won’t fight screens, won’t go over them, in fact, he even gets beaten when Pierce DOESN’T take the screen. Radmanovic essentially stops moving when he feels another body next to him.

2. Pau Gasol must drop BELOW the screen and discourage penetration. Instead, Pau jumped OUT on the screen every time, leaving the lanes wide open for Pierce.

If Pierce shoots behind the screen, let him. That’s a lower percentage shot than him driving and getting 2 fouls. If Pierce makes one, tip your hat. If he makes two in a row, THEN Pau should come out on the screen.

Lastly, defenses could rotate quicker, namely Lamar Odom. But Odom has always been a poor help defender, because he

1) isn’t a shotblocker
2) doesn’t move quickly enough to draw charges

In sum, I see the following scenario playing out:

Kobe faces Pierce at the top of the key. Let’s say KG comes up to Kobe’s left to set a screen.  If Pierce does takes the screen (going to Kobe’s left), then Kobe needs to fight over the screen. Gasol MUST sag below the screen to defend Pierce’s penetration off the screen. Let Kobe contest Pierce’s shot from behind. By sagging, Gasol is also in position to defend KG if KG rolls and Pierce hits him with the pass. By not jumping out at the screen, Gasol is challenging Pierce to shoot pull-up jumpers, which is what we should prefer to giving up free throws and getting into foul trouble.

A good mix-up would be to have Kobe go UNDER KG’s screen when possible, again, the key being to deny Pierce penetration.

Another challenge is that KG sets good screens, actually, illegal screens, and it’s tough to get around them. Unfortunately, that’s up to the refs.

On our part, we need to defend the pick-and-roll to deny PENETRATION. Give up the perimeter shot – it’ll come and go. Play the percentages.

GLORY

“If tomorrow we have to meet the judgment day, O! heavenly father, we want you to let our folks know, that we died facing the enemy. We want them to know that we down, standing up!”

BRAVEHEART

“Aye, fight and you may die. Run, and you’ll live…at least a while. And dying in your beds, many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days, from this day till that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here, and tell our enemies, that they may take our lives, but they’ll never take OUR FREEDOM!”

LAST OF THE MOHICANS

[no dialogue, just badass, hardcore, raw courage]

ANY GIVEN SUNDAY

“We’re in hell right now…we can stay here, get the sh*t kicked out of us, or we can fight our way back into the light. We can climb out of hell, one inch at a time…On this team, we fight for that inch. On this team, we tear ourselves, and everyone else around us to pieces, for that inch. We claw, with our fingernails, for that inch. Because we know, when we add up all those inches, that’s going to make the F*CKING DIFFERENCE between WINNING and LOSING. BETWEEN LIVING AND DYING!”

ARE YOU READY? ARE YOU READY TO FACE THESE BOSTON SONS OF BITCHES?

Carcasse, tu trembles? Tu tremblerais bien davantage,
si tu savais, où je te mène.
-Turenne.

Phil Jackson: This isn’t over. This series isn’t over.

Over? The series didn’t start until now.

28 teams have no chance to win a championship. Two teams still do. The Lakers are one of them.

The Lakers must win 3 games in a row. What’s 3 games?
We can beat physical teams. We can beat great defensive teams. What’s 3 games?
We can sweep teams. What’s 3 games?
Teams must win six times in a row in the NCAA to win a championship. What’s 3 games?
You play them ONE AT A TIME.

One swing at a time to chop down a tree.-Kobe Bryant

It’s never been done before in the NBA? That’s because human beings are feeble creatures. That’s why there are runs in the NBA, because one team can impose its will on another, and five minutes later, the other team will impose its will on the first. Human beings are mentally weak.

But the Lakers have to do some soul searching. Are they a team of mere mortals? Or are they a team of Zen, of Mambas, of Machines?

Kobe scored 81 points in a game, unthinkable, the impossible, more impressive than Wilt’s schoolyard game against midgets. The only thing that is stopping him is the limiting sense of team play. He’d have to abandon all that rhetoric, and he needs to channel the unstoppable Mamba, the one that destroyed the Spurs in their series.

Thinking this series is over is cowardly talk. It’s an opportunity for greatness. The quality of the victory is measured by the size of the challenge. If the Lakers pull this off, this will go down as the greatest Finals in the history of the game. WE’LL make history. WE’LL be the team that does it. WE’LL be the exception to the rule. WE’LL be immortalized.

SO WHAT if media pundits have buried us. So what if Bill Simmons has used his BSPN column to mock Kobe, his Colorado trial, his wife, the Lakers, the city, the fans. So what if Marc Stein seized the opportunity for an untimely Kobe-Jordan comparison, never mind the fact that Jordan never had such inconsistent, soft, and sometimes useless teammates like Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, and Radmanovic.

But we know that everybody hates the Lakers.

But why should the Lakers and the Lakers fans give up? I would want my Lakers team to fight until the last second, no matter how much they’re down. Shouldn’t you fight for you team until the last second?

Win or lose, share in both the triumphs and the failures. Are you a Laker fan, or are you a Laker FAN? We’ve lived through Kwame Brown and Smush Parker. We’ve lived through not even making the playoffs. We’re here in the Finals, still with a chance to win a championship, and you guys still aren’t excited by this challenge?
Keep the faith, and believe.

I’m the only optimist in this whole room. -Kobe Bryant

This is where guts and glory starts.
Not game one.
Not game two,
Not game three,
Not game four,
But at the point of elimination.

Backs to the wall, that’s when you find out what you’re made of. Who’s with us, who’s against us? Who’s going to break down and cry? Who’s going to stand up and fight?

On Sunday, we’ll see what kind of heart our team has. But we know, on any and every night, what kind of fans we are.

The kind that steps to the chasm’s brink, the gates of Hades, and will never lose the faith.

Believe. Don’t let pride and fear rob you of your faith.

Loving is believing. Believing is loving.

3 more wins to glory.

Do or Die.
Gut-check.
All in.

Immortality awaits.

As I feared, the Lakers lost to the Celtics in precisely the way I predicted: underrated defense beating overrated offense.

How? The Celtics applied a ”box-and-one” zone on Kobe when he has the ball. The box is 4 defenders positioned in a “box” or quadrilateral formation, with the “one” defender (Ray Allen) playing man defense on Kobe. This defense discourages Kobe from attacking the basket, since there are potentially 5 defenders to get through. The Celtics can get away with playing off the other Lakers because:

1. Pau Gasol is not getting in position in the paint, and he can be single-covered
2. Perkins and KG are not respecting Odom’s perimeter game, thus allowing them to cheat off him
3. The Lakers shooters didn’t shoot well, and they don’t like shooting early
4. Fish and Radmanovic and Odom don’t move well without the ball, allowing defenders to recover

However, the Spurs defended Kobe in a similar way, except Kobe beat the percentages by hitting his perimeter shots. Thus, Kobe’s refusal afterwards to concede that he should done otherwise. Is it just that simple, Kobe missing shots that he normally makes? Kobe shot poorly in the regular season games against Boston. Lebron shot 36% in 7 games against the Celtics. The Celtics are excellent at defending elite perimter players.

Still, the offense can be improved. The coaching staff needs to find a more consistent way for us to run our offense, whether it’s the triangle or a simplified 2-man game between Kobe and Gasol, or perhaps we need to simply push the ball more by playing Farmar.

The man probably most responsible for that is new assistant coach Tom Thibodeau.

 As NBA.com reports, “In 14 NBA seasons, Thibodeau has helped his team finish in the NBA’s Top Ten in team defense 11 times.” The list of teams he assisted includes Houston, San Antonio, and the Knicks (back when the Knicks played stiffling defense). This assistant coach has a lot of respect around the league for what he’s done.

Including Kobe Bryant. This is from kevin ding’s blog:

“Q. You’ve known Tom Thibodeau for a long time and you’ve also had to face his defenses a lot. How much of a challenge is that?

KOBE BRYANT: You know, it’s always been tough. He has an unfair advantage: He started drilling me, NBA basketball drills, when I was 14. So he kind of has inside information on what I like to do because he taught me most of the stuff. I’ve been facing his defenses here for some time, and they’re tough, very, very tough. Every single team he’s been on has had great strategies and physical defense. He’s awesome.”

Pundits will point to all the jumpshots, lack of free throws, and say that Kobe needs to attack the basket more. However, few offer any specific ways to beat the Celtics’ defense. Nobody on earth can stop Lebron attacking the basket, right? He was limited to 36%. Why? The Celts took away penetration with the box and one, and  You can’t just lower your shoulder and plow through 3 defenders, one of them being Kevin Garnett, always hovering around the basket.

That’s why it’s a team game, and the fact that Kobe shot so many jumpers wasn’t by design, it was a reaction to the Celtics’ defense in the paint. It just so happens that Kobe’s jumpers are frequently a better option than Gasol trying to break down KG one-on-one, Odom charging to the basket, or Radmanovic and Fish shooting contested jumpshots.

Because at the end of the day, Kobe can get his shot off against anybody. When the team offense breaks down, that’s a great luxury to have. It carried us in the Spurs series. It let us down in Game One.

The bigger problem is rebounding, since the Celtics are getting more possessions, which was the difference in the game (they shot as poorly as the Lakers, and KG was 9-22 himself).

Focusing on Kobe’s shooting is missing the forest for the trees. It’s more symptomatic of deeper problems.

Don’t expect to see this too often during the Finals

The Celtics are underrated.

They struggled a bit in the playoffs, sure, but they’ve also played some tough teams, and Ray Allen had perhaps the worst shooting month in his career.

But they’re still the best defensive team. They gave up only 87.3 points in the playoffs, limiting their opponents to 42.2% shooting. Their offense may sputter, but their defense remains stingy as hell. They also gave the Lakers major problems this season. Sure, KG has been tough, Pierce is dangerous, Allen can light it up from outside, but Kendrick Perkins has been overlooked. A physical, 280-pound bruiser, Perkins beat up on Andrew Bynum during the two meetings between the teams.

That spells trouble for Pau Gasol, who’s been pushed around by smaller players like Al Horford or even soft players like Mehmet Okur. Gasol will get bullied by Kendrick Perkins. Book it.

Odom didn’t have good games either, shooting 6-17 in one game, 2-7 in another. That’s the effect KG has. 

But Boston’s frontcourt will do more than frustrate the Lakers’ big men. Their defense puts pressure on the perimeter players. Kendrick Perkins, along with KG, clog up the middle. They take away the paint, they take away penetration. They force the offensive team to beat them from the outside.

Even though the Celtics haven’t played the Lakers with Gasol, their individual defense will force Gasol to throw up the same weak stuff he’s been putting up against the Spurs (and the Jazz). Gasol is a great passer, but if the Celtics hedge toward the paint, they take away the passes to cutters. In short, Boston will limit much of Gasol’s game, just as the Spurs did.

The interior defense is how the Celtics beat the Lakers during the two games, and Kobe (and Odom) couldn’t hit from outside to make them pay. When opponents plan how to defend the Lakers and Kobe, they have to pick their poison: get in his shirt (like Ronnie Brewer and the Jazz, Raja Bell and the Suns) or take away the lanes and force him to be a jumpshooter (like the Spurs).

The Spurs found out that forcing Kobe to bomb away from the outside has its drawbacks, namely, getting killed from the outside. Kobe hardly shot a free throw during the series, and most analysts were lauding the Spurs defense…until they were eliminated.

In fact, Kobe’s been shooting at a blistering 51% in the playoffs, and he’s doing most of the damage with a variety of midrange jumpshots.

The key then, is for Boston to employ the same strategy, to take away penetration from Kobe. However, Kobe’s been a seemingly endless shooting rhythm in the postseason. They need to respond approriately; when Kobe gets hot, they must be flexible enough to disrupt his rhythm by taking away his jumpshot, to force him in the middle where KG and Perkins lie waiting. Too much of that funneling defense might get KG or Perkins in foul trouble, but considering KG’s quality of defense, the respect he gets from the refs, a healthy dose of this change-up defense every game should be a no-brainer.

Boston’s strategy should be baiting the Mamba into tunnel vision, forcing him into the teeth of an elite interior defense, disrupting Kobe’s rhythm, preventing the execution of the triangle offense, and pressure the Lakers into unraveling that hyped-up, overreported team chemistry.